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ざっくり企業価値評価

企業価値を判断するのには、教科書どおりだと「ディスカウントキャッシュフロー」を使います。ただし以下の点で、「面倒」な上に精度が悪いです。

  • 将来のキャッシュフローを予想しにくい
  • 割引率が企業ごとに違う

ということで、EBIDA倍率なんてなのも企業価値を見るのに参考にされたりします。EBIDAというのは、利払前、税期引前、償却前利益です。営業利益と似ていますが、営業利益には設備の減価償却費が費用として差し引かれているので、キャッシュの流れを見るには償却費を考慮しないほうがいいです。

てことで、日経11/18朝刊で、ざっくりとした企業価値(記事では事業価値の算出)をやっていました。

  • EBIDA倍率を10倍する・・・・企業価値A
  • 利払い前のフリーキャッシュフローを5%で割引して現在価値を算出・・・・企業価値B
  • 企業価値Aと企業価値Bの平均を企業価値とする

ポイントは、10倍と5%というところ。本当は、成長性や安定性によって違う数字が使われるべきなんだろうけど、他の不確定要素も考えると、とりあえずざっくりこれくらいでも「比較」はできる。

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Comments

この記事は、僕も正直へぇと思いました。
EBITDAは、「仮置き」の数字として、「5倍」が一般的かと
思ってましたが、10倍というのもあるんですね。
(まあ、ざっくりの点で5倍も10倍も、根拠に差はないですが)

単年度のCFを5%で割り引く、というのは、
直接還元法というやつですね。
(ちなみに、不動産の鑑定評価を見る機会もわりと多いですが、
収益物件の場合、鑑定評価は、直接還元法で算出した値と、簿価の積算から出した値の平均をとってるのが多いです。)

各年度のCFを5%で割り引いたものの合算値、が正確には欲しいのでしょうが各年度のCFの値も、前提によってころころ変わるので、ここはズバッと、5%で割ってしまえ、ということなんでしょうね。(間を取って、CFはここ3年分の平均でみるというのが、もうひとつのやり方。)

どちらかというと、保守的に価値を見積もりたい場合は、
EBITDAの5倍、CFを10%で割る、というざっくり数字で、
もうちょっと「元気な価値」を見出したい場合は、
EBITDAの10倍、CFを5%で割る、というざっくり数字をつかう、
というのが、僕個人的な使い方にしようかと。
(売る立場と買う立場によって使い分けるだけですが。)

Posted by: matsuo | 2006.11.19 at 10:09 AM

よくまとまってます

www.meti.go.jp/report/downloadfiles/ji2005_01_4.ppt

Posted by: mat | 2006.11.20 at 01:17 PM

たしか、ケースでDCFで求めたときにも、「5年後の事業売却」がどれくらいで売れるか分からなくて、売却額をEBIDA倍率で出したりするって話がありました。

そのときはEBIDA一本でもいいじゃんって気もしました。

今、Yahoo.comのファイナンスを見ると、EBIDAの項がありました。yahoo.co.jpのファイナンスにはない。

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